In the race for Congress, 2nd District, U.S.
Representative Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans) faces a seemingly impossible task.
How can a Vietnamese-American Republican win re-election in a district that is
61 percent African American and overwhelmingly Democratic? Not only can it be
done, according to Cao supporters, but they claim the odds favor the incumbent.
Cao defeated eighteen year
incumbent Bill Jefferson in a shocking special election in December of 2008.
Many analysts pointed to Cao’s victory as a fluke because of the low turnout,
the ongoing federal investigation into Jefferson
and his multi-count indictment.
Since that time, Cao has worked
hard to defy political expectations. He was sided with President Obama and
against his GOP colleagues on multiple occasions. Just recently he voted for
the President’s financial reform legislation. In fact, Cao was one of only
three Republicans to support the legislation. The President even singled out
Cao during the bill signing ceremony.
Over the last eighteen months, Obama
has invited Cao to special events at the White House and has made no secret of
his affection for the Republican. In return, Cao has sided with the President
so often that his Republican colleagues named him the “most independent” member
of their delegation.
Despite his maverick ways, his
Democratic opponents like State Representative Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans)
note that Cao voted against the President’s healthcare and stimulus bills. They
contend that he does not accurately represent the district in Congress.
In a poll conducted by Verne
Kennedy for the Cao campaign, the incumbent is comfortably ahead. Kennedy
sampled 400 voters in the district and the results showed Cao ahead of Richmond by a 51-26
percent margin. Among African Americans, Cao was barely ahead 39-36 percent,
but he was far in front of Richmond
among white voters by a 67-13 percent margin. Richmond
is the leading Democrat in the race, but he faces several opponents including
State Representative Juan LaFonta (D-New Orleans) and former Jefferson
aide Eugene Green in the August 28 Democratic primary. Overall, Kennedy’s poll shows
Cao with a 54 percent favorable rating and only a 9 percent unfavorable rating.
While the race will tighten in
the days ahead, Cao can win if he retains the support of the vast majority of
white voters and the African American turnout is not very high. In recent
mid-term elections, white voter turnout has been significantly higher than
African American turnout. In the last New Orleans Mayor’s race, white turnout
was 16 points higher than African American turnout.
Undaunted, Richmond has been working hard to secure
endorsements and raise money in recent weeks, preparing for a general election
match-up against Cao. In a major coup, Richmond picked
up the endorsement of Orleans Parish District Attorney Leon Cannizzaro, who
said that Richmond
will “assist us in making the streets of this community safer.” The ringing
endorsement was music to the ears of Richmond
who will use the District Attorney’s comments to make inroads into Cao’s
support among white voters.
